How it works
Three things on every lake page.
The latest official reading, how full the lake is, and how that compares with full pool.
Where the level is likely to be in 1, 2 and 4 weeks, as a middle estimate and a range with an 8 in 10 chance.
How well the outlook has done at that same lake in past years, so you can judge how much to rely on it.
Pick a state
Texas is live. More states are added as their lake data is connected.
- Lakes available
- Coming later
Available now: Texas (121 lakes)
Why trust it
We publish how well the outlook does, lake by lake.
Two weeks out, the outlook lands on average 26% closer to the real level than simply assuming the lake stays where it is. Tested on 51,669 past forecasts.
80% of real levels landed inside the published range, which is built to catch 8 in 10.
Daily levels from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators, forecast rain from NOAA.
Questions
Is this an official forecast?
No. It is our own statistical outlook built on official data. Lake operators sometimes publish their own projections, especially during floods, and those take priority.
Can I use it to decide if the lake is safe?
No. We show levels and likely ranges only. For closures, ramps, swimming and water quality, check the lake operator and your state's official advisories.
How often is it updated?
Every morning, after the latest daily levels and rain forecasts come in. Each page shows when it was last updated.
Feet or meters?
Use the ft | m switch at the top of any page (inside Menu on a phone). Your choice is remembered on this device.