Outlook
Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.
Higher chance of a rise. 30% chance the lake is 1 ft0.3 m or more above today's level on Nov 9.
- Rain, past 7 days
- 1.2 in32 mm watershed average
- Rain forecast, next 7 days
- 0.6 in15 mm normal 0.3 in7 mm
Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.
Map
Map of Falcon Lake with the dam and 10 public boat ramps.
- Dam
- Public boat ramp
Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.
Level and outlook
FeetMeters above sea level
- Measured
- Middle estimate
- 8 in 10 range
- Full pool
Show outlook as a table
| Date | Low end | Middle | High end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 260.479.37 | 260.879.49 | 261.879.78 |
| Nov 9 | 260.179.26 | 260.879.49 | 262.379.96 |
| Nov 25 | 259.279.01 | 260.779.47 | 268.281.75 |
How well this outlook has done here
We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.
- On average it was off by
- 0.83 ft0.25 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 1.07 ft0.33 m
- Actual level inside our range
- 84% of 430 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
- When we said a rise was possible (20–40%)
- 14% of those 55 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher
The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).
Connected lakes
Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.
Nearby lakes
Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.
About Falcon Lake
Falcon International Reservoir (Falcon Lake) is on the Rio Grande about 40 miles southeast of Laredo, bordered by Starr and Zapata counties and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas. The dam was dedicated in 1953 and is run jointly by the United States and Mexico through the International Boundary and Water Commission. Amistad Reservoir is the next big reservoir upstream.
- Full pool (conservation)
- 301.2 ft91.81 m
- Highest level since 1954
- 309.3 ft94.27 m, Jul 2010
- Lowest level since 1954
- 235.1 ft71.66 m, Feb 1957
- Surface area at normal pool
- 115,400 acres46,701 ha
- Conservation storage
- 1,562,367 acre-feet1,927 million m³
- Dam
- Falcon Dam, 1953
- River or creek
- Rio Grande
- County
- Starr
- Owner
- International Boundary and Water Commission;Mexico Comision Internacional de Limites y Aguas
Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).
Common questions
Is Falcon Lake full right now?
On Oct 26 it was 260.9 ft, 40.3 ft below full pool (301.2 ft), holding 20% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 79.51 m, 12.29 m below full pool (91.81 m), holding 20% of its conservation storage.
Is Falcon Lake going up or down?
The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 260.1 ft and 262.3 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is 30%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 79.26 m and 79.96 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is 30%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.
Where does this data come from?
Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.