Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 21018.7 ft310.50 m−0.6 ft−0.19 m from todayLikely 1018.4310.41 to 1019.1 ft310.62 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 91018.1 ft310.32 m−1.2 ft−0.37 m from todayLikely 1017.5310.14 to 1019.0 ft310.60 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 251017.6 ft310.16 m−1.8 ft−0.53 m from todayLikely 1016.2309.73 to 1019.4 ft310.72 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in1 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.6 in16 mm normal 0.6 in16 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Medina Lake with the dam, level gauge and 4 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	1018.4310.41	1018.7310.50	1019.1310.62
Nov 9	1017.5310.14	1018.1310.32	1019.0310.60
Nov 25	1016.2309.73	1017.6310.16	1019.4310.72

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.38 ft0.12 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.83 ft0.25 m
Actual level inside our range: 84% of 430 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Medina Lake

Medina Lake is a reservoir on the Medina River in Medina and Bandera counties, about 40 miles northwest of San Antonio. Medina Dam was finished in 1913 to supply irrigation water and is run by the Bexar-Medina-Atascosa Counties water district. The dam is listed on the National Register of Historic Places.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 1064.2 ft324.37 m
Highest level since 1997: 1072.0 ft326.75 m, Aug 1997
Lowest level since 1997: 968.7 ft295.27 m, May 2025
Surface area at normal pool: 5,625 acres2,276 ha
Conservation storage: 254,823 acre-feet314 million m³
Dam: Medina Lake Dam, 1913
River or creek: Medina River
County: Medina
Owner: Bexar Medina Atascosa Counties WCID 1

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Medina Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 1019.3 ft, 44.9 ft below full pool (1064.2 ft), holding 27% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 310.69 m, 13.68 m below full pool (324.37 m), holding 27% of its conservation storage.

Is Medina Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 1.2 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 1017.5 ft and 1019.0 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.37 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 310.14 m and 310.60 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.