Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2448.5 ft136.71 m−0.1 ft−0.03 m from todayLikely 448.5136.69 to 448.6 ft136.75 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9448.5 ft136.69 m−0.2 ft−0.05 m from todayLikely 448.3136.65 to 448.8 ft136.78 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25448.4 ft136.66 m−0.3 ft−0.09 m from todayLikely 448.1136.57 to 449.2 ft136.91 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.6 in16 mm normal 1.0 in27 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Map

Map of Pat Mayse Lake with the dam and 10 public boat ramps.

Dam
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	448.5136.69	448.5136.71	448.6136.75
Nov 9	448.3136.65	448.5136.69	448.8136.78
Nov 25	448.1136.57	448.4136.66	449.2136.91

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.52 ft0.16 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.69 ft0.21 m
Actual level inside our range: 75% of 398 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 38% of those 34 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Pat Mayse Lake

Pat Mayse Lake is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Tulsa District) reservoir on Sanders Creek in Lamar County, near Chicota and Powderly north of Paris. It was completed in 1967 for flood control and water supply.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Full pool (conservation): 451.0 ft137.46 m
Highest level since 1987: 461.6 ft140.68 m, Dec 2015
Lowest level since 1987: 50.1 ft15.29 m, Sep 1987
Surface area at normal pool: 5,993 acres2,425 ha
Conservation storage: 113,683 acre-feet140 million m³
Dam: Pat Mayse Dam, 1967
River or creek: Sanders Creek
County: Lamar
Owner: USACE - Tulsa District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Pat Mayse Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 448.6 ft, 2.4 ft below full pool (451.0 ft), holding 89% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 136.75 m, 0.72 m below full pool (137.46 m), holding 89% of its conservation storage.

Is Pat Mayse Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.2 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 448.3 ft and 448.8 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.05 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 136.65 m and 136.78 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.