Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2530.9 ft161.83 m−0.1 ft−0.04 m from todayLikely 530.9161.81 to 531.1 ft161.89 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9530.9 ft161.80 m−0.2 ft−0.07 m from todayLikely 530.7161.75 to 531.1 ft161.89 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25530.7 ft161.75 m−0.4 ft−0.12 m from todayLikely 530.4161.67 to 531.5 ft162.01 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in13 mm normal 1.0 in26 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Bois d'Arc Lake with the dam.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	530.9161.81	530.9161.83	531.1161.89
Nov 9	530.7161.75	530.9161.80	531.1161.89
Nov 25	530.4161.67	530.7161.75	531.5162.01

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.39 ft0.12 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.54 ft0.16 m
Actual level inside our range: 69% of 213 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 27% of those 22 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Upstream

Lake Bonham562.2 ft171.35 m · 75%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Bois d'Arc Lake

Bois d’Arc Lake is one of the newest reservoirs in Texas, on Bois d’Arc Creek in Fannin County. The North Texas Municipal Water District completed the dam in the early 2020s to add water supply for its member cities. Because the lake is new, its level history is short.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 534.0 ft162.76 m
Highest level since 2023: 536.5 ft163.53 m, Jun 2024
Lowest level since 2023: 526.3 ft160.42 m, Jan 2024
Surface area at normal pool: 16,500 acres6,677 ha
Conservation storage: 367,609 acre-feet453 million m³
Dam: Bois D Arc Lake Dam, 2023
River or creek: Bois D'Arc Creek
County: Fannin
Owner: North Texas Municipal Water District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NAVD88).

Common questions

Is Bois d'Arc Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 531.1 ft, 2.9 ft below full pool (534.0 ft), holding 87% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 161.87 m, 0.89 m below full pool (162.76 m), holding 87% of its conservation storage.

Is Bois d'Arc Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.2 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 530.7 ft and 531.1 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.07 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 161.75 m and 161.89 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.