Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2487.4 ft148.57 m−0.1 ft−0.04 m from todayLikely 487.4148.54 to 487.6 ft148.63 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9487.4 ft148.56 m−0.1 ft−0.05 m from todayLikely 487.2148.50 to 487.8 ft148.67 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25487.3 ft148.54 m−0.2 ft−0.07 m from todayLikely 486.9148.41 to 488.6 ft148.93 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in14 mm normal 1.0 in26 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Map

Map of Lavon Lake with the dam, level gauge and 12 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	487.4148.54	487.4148.57	487.6148.63
Nov 9	487.2148.50	487.4148.56	487.8148.67
Nov 25	486.9148.41	487.3148.54	488.6148.93

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.66 ft0.20 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.95 ft0.29 m
Actual level inside our range: 79% of 430 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 30% of those 47 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Downstream

Lake Ray Hubbard431.8 ft131.62 m · 83%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Lavon Lake

Lavon Lake is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir on the East Fork of the Trinity River in southeast Collin County, near Wylie. The dam was completed in 1953 for flood control and water supply, and raised in 1975. It is the Corps’ official name, though many people call it Lake Lavon. Lake Ray Hubbard is next downstream.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Full pool (conservation): 492.0 ft149.96 m
Highest level since 1988: 504.6 ft153.79 m, May 1990
Lowest level since 1988: 474.9 ft144.74 m, Nov 2006
Surface area at normal pool: 21,400 acres8,660 ha
Conservation storage: 409,757 acre-feet505 million m³
Dam: Lavon Dam, 1953
River or creek: East Fork of Trinity River
County: Collin
Owner: USACE - Fort Worth District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Lavon Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 487.6 ft, 4.4 ft below full pool (492.0 ft), holding 79% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 148.61 m, 1.35 m below full pool (149.96 m), holding 79% of its conservation storage.

Is Lavon Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.1 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 487.2 ft and 487.8 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.05 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 148.50 m and 148.67 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.