Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2493.2 ft150.34 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 493.2150.32 to 493.3 ft150.37 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9493.2 ft150.34 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 493.1150.28 to 493.4 ft150.39 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25493.2 ft150.32 m−0.1 ft−0.03 m from todayLikely 492.9150.23 to 493.8 ft150.50 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in12 mm normal 1.1 in27 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of New Terrell City Lake with the dam, level gauge.

Dam
Level gauge

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	493.2150.32	493.2150.34	493.3150.37
Nov 9	493.1150.28	493.2150.34	493.4150.39
Nov 25	492.9150.23	493.2150.32	493.8150.50

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.44 ft0.13 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.51 ft0.16 m
Actual level inside our range: 77% of 430 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 38% of those 24 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Downstream

Cedar Creek Reservoir316.0 ft96.31 m · 72%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About New Terrell City Lake

New Terrell City Lake is a small reservoir on Muddy Cedar Creek in Kaufman County, near Elmo, built in 1955. It is owned by the City of Terrell and the local soil and water conservation district. Its outflow drains toward Cedar Creek Reservoir.

More: Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 504.0 ft153.62 m
Highest level since 1999: 507.2 ft154.59 m, Oct 2009
Lowest level since 1999: 491.6 ft149.83 m, Oct 2023
Surface area at normal pool: 840 acres340 ha
Conservation storage: 8,583 acre-feet11 million m³
Dam: Cedar Creek WS SCS Site 87a Dam, 1955
River or creek: Muddy Cedar Creek
County: Kaufman
Owner: City of Terrell;kaufman Van Zandt Rockwall SWCD

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is New Terrell City Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 493.3 ft, 10.7 ft below full pool (504.0 ft), holding 24% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 150.35 m, 3.26 m below full pool (153.62 m), holding 24% of its conservation storage.

Is New Terrell City Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 493.1 ft and 493.4 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 150.28 m and 150.39 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.