Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 22826.3 ft861.45 m+0.1 ft+0.03 m from todayLikely 2826.1861.39 to 2826.8 ft861.62 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 92826.3 ft861.45 m+0.1 ft+0.02 m from todayLikely 2825.9861.35 to 2828.1 ft862.00 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

In a month · by Nov 252826.1 ft861.40 m−0.1 ft−0.03 m from todayLikely 2825.5861.22 to 2830.5 ft862.75 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 1.8 in47 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.6 in15 mm normal 0.3 in7 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Palo Duro Reservoir with the dam, level gauge and 2 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	2826.1861.39	2826.3861.45	2826.8861.62
Nov 9	2825.9861.35	2826.3861.45	2828.1862.00
Nov 25	2825.5861.22	2826.1861.40	2830.5862.75

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.52 ft0.16 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.75 ft0.23 m
Actual level inside our range: 82% of 410 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 27% of those 22 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Palo Duro Reservoir

Palo Duro Reservoir is a water-supply lake on Palo Duro Creek in Hansford County in the northern Texas Panhandle, built in 1991 and owned by the Palo Duro River Authority.

More: Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 2892.0 ft881.48 m
Highest level since 1999: 2879.6 ft877.69 m, Jun 2010
Lowest level since 1999: 2825.9 ft861.35 m, Apr 2023
Surface area at normal pool: 2,410 acres975 ha
Conservation storage: 61,066 acre-feet75 million m³
Dam: Palo Duro Dam, 1991
River or creek: Palo Duro Creek
County: Hansford
Owner: Palo Duro River Authority of Texas

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Palo Duro Reservoir full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 2826.2 ft, 65.8 ft below full pool (2892.0 ft), holding 0% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 861.43 m, 20.06 m below full pool (881.48 m), holding 0% of its conservation storage.

Is Palo Duro Reservoir going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 2825.9 ft and 2828.1 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is 10%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 861.35 m and 862.00 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is 10%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.