Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2418.9 ft127.67 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 418.8127.64 to 419.0 ft127.71 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9418.9 ft127.67 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 418.7127.61 to 419.1 ft127.75 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25418.8 ft127.64 m−0.2 ft−0.05 m from todayLikely 418.5127.56 to 420.4 ft128.13 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in13 mm normal 1.0 in25 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Map

Map of Bardwell Lake with the dam, level gauge and 7 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	418.8127.64	418.9127.67	419.0127.71
Nov 9	418.7127.61	418.9127.67	419.1127.75
Nov 25	418.5127.56	418.8127.64	420.4128.13

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.77 ft0.23 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 1.04 ft0.32 m
Actual level inside our range: 81% of 423 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 21% of those 34 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Upstream

Lake Waxahachie526.9 ft160.59 m · 75%

Downstream

Richland-Chambers Reservoir312.3 ft95.19 m · 90%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Bardwell Lake

Bardwell Lake is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir on Waxahachie Creek in Ellis County, completed in 1965. It was built for flood control and water supply in the Trinity basin. Lake Waxahachie lies upstream, and Richland-Chambers Reservoir is the next lake downstream.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Full pool (conservation): 421.0 ft128.32 m
Highest level since 1988: 440.7 ft134.32 m, Jun 2015
Lowest level since 1988: 415.7 ft126.70 m, Dec 2011
Surface area at normal pool: 3,570 acres1,445 ha
Conservation storage: 43,856 acre-feet54 million m³
Dam: Bardwell Dam, 1965
River or creek: Waxahachie Creek
County: Ellis
Owner: USACE - Fort Worth District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Bardwell Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 418.9 ft, 2.1 ft below full pool (421.0 ft), holding 85% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 127.69 m, 0.63 m below full pool (128.32 m), holding 85% of its conservation storage.

Is Bardwell Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 418.7 ft and 419.1 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 127.61 m and 127.75 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.