Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2459.1 ft139.92 m−0.1 ft−0.04 m from todayLikely 459.0139.89 to 459.2 ft139.97 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9459.0 ft139.90 m−0.2 ft−0.06 m from todayLikely 458.8139.84 to 459.3 ft140.01 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25458.8 ft139.84 m−0.4 ft−0.12 m from todayLikely 458.4139.72 to 460.9 ft140.47 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in12 mm normal 0.8 in20 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Map

Map of Waco Lake with the dam, level gauge and 9 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	459.0139.89	459.1139.92	459.2139.97
Nov 9	458.8139.84	459.0139.90	459.3140.01
Nov 25	458.4139.72	458.8139.84	460.9140.47

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.75 ft0.23 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 1.09 ft0.33 m
Actual level inside our range: 83% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 17% of those 36 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Waco Lake

Waco Lake is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir on the Bosque River on the west side of Waco, completed in 1965 for flood control and water supply. It supplies water to Waco and several neighboring cities.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Full pool (conservation): 462.2 ft140.88 m
Highest level since 1995: 485.8 ft148.08 m, Jul 2007
Lowest level since 1995: 449.0 ft136.84 m, Feb 2000
Surface area at normal pool: 7,270 acres2,942 ha
Conservation storage: 188,891 acre-feet233 million m³
Dam: Waco Dam, 1965
River or creek: Bosque River
County: McLennan
Owner: USACE - Fort Worth District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NAVD88).

Common questions

Is Waco Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 459.2 ft, 3.0 ft below full pool (462.2 ft), holding 87% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 139.96 m, 0.92 m below full pool (140.88 m), holding 87% of its conservation storage.

Is Waco Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.2 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 458.8 ft and 459.3 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.06 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 139.84 m and 140.01 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.