Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2422.1 ft128.66 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 422.1128.64 to 422.2 ft128.69 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9422.0 ft128.64 m−0.1 ft−0.04 m from todayLikely 422.0128.63 to 422.3 ft128.72 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25422.0 ft128.61 m−0.2 ft−0.07 m from todayLikely 421.8128.56 to 423.5 ft129.08 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in1 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in13 mm normal 1.0 in26 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Map

Map of Navarro Mills Lake with the dam, level gauge and 6 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	422.1128.64	422.1128.66	422.2128.69
Nov 9	422.0128.63	422.0128.64	422.3128.72
Nov 25	421.8128.56	422.0128.61	423.5129.08

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.65 ft0.20 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.89 ft0.27 m
Actual level inside our range: 81% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 30% of those 33 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Downstream

Richland-Chambers Reservoir312.3 ft95.19 m · 90%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Navarro Mills Lake

Navarro Mills Lake is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir on Richland Creek in Navarro County, about 20 miles west of Corsicana, completed in 1963 for flood control and water supply. Richland-Chambers Reservoir is downstream on Richland Creek.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Full pool (conservation): 424.5 ft129.39 m
Highest level since 1988: 443.0 ft135.02 m, Nov 2015
Lowest level since 1988: 415.7 ft126.72 m, Dec 2006
Surface area at normal pool: 5,070 acres2,052 ha
Conservation storage: 49,827 acre-feet61 million m³
Dam: Navarro Mills Dam, 1963
River or creek: Richland Creek
County: Navarro
Owner: USACE - Fort Worth District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Navarro Mills Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 422.2 ft, 2.3 ft below full pool (424.5 ft), holding 79% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 128.68 m, 0.71 m below full pool (129.39 m), holding 79% of its conservation storage.

Is Navarro Mills Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 422.0 ft and 422.3 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 128.63 m and 128.72 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.