Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2534.5 ft162.92 m−0.1 ft−0.03 m from todayLikely 534.4162.89 to 534.7 ft162.96 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9534.4 ft162.89 m−0.2 ft−0.06 m from todayLikely 534.3162.84 to 534.8 ft163.01 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25534.3 ft162.84 m−0.3 ft−0.11 m from todayLikely 534.0162.77 to 535.6 ft163.26 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in12 mm normal 0.9 in23 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Map

Map of Aquilla Lake with the dam, level gauge and 3 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	534.4162.89	534.5162.92	534.7162.96
Nov 9	534.3162.84	534.4162.89	534.8163.01
Nov 25	534.0162.77	534.3162.84	535.6163.26

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.62 ft0.19 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.87 ft0.27 m
Actual level inside our range: 74% of 428 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 23% of those 40 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Aquilla Lake

Aquilla Lake is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir on Aquilla Creek in Hill County, about 23 miles north of Waco. The dam was completed in 1983 as part of flood control for the Brazos River basin, and the lake also stores water supply. Because it is a flood-control lake, its level can rise well above normal after heavy rain.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Full pool (conservation): 537.5 ft163.83 m
Highest level since 1988: 551.9 ft168.21 m, Dec 1991
Lowest level since 1988: 528.8 ft161.18 m, Dec 2006
Surface area at normal pool: 3,280 acres1,327 ha
Conservation storage: 43,243 acre-feet53 million m³
Dam: Aquilla Dam, 1983
River or creek: Aquilla Creek
County: Hill
Owner: USACE - Fort Worth District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Aquilla Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 534.6 ft, 2.9 ft below full pool (537.5 ft), holding 81% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 162.95 m, 0.88 m below full pool (163.83 m), holding 81% of its conservation storage.

Is Aquilla Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.2 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 534.3 ft and 534.8 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.06 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 162.84 m and 163.01 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.