Outlook
Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.
Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.
- Rain, past 7 days
- 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
- Rain forecast, next 7 days
- 0.5 in13 mm normal 1.0 in24 mm
Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.
Map
Map of Lake Waxahachie with the dam, level gauge and 2 public boat ramps.
- Dam
- Level gauge
- Public boat ramp
Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.
Level and outlook
FeetMeters above sea level
- Measured
- Middle estimate
- 8 in 10 range
- Full pool
Show outlook as a table
| Date | Low end | Middle | High end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 526.8160.56 | 526.9160.58 | 527.0160.64 |
| Nov 9 | 526.7160.54 | 526.9160.61 | 527.1160.66 |
| Nov 25 | 526.5160.48 | 527.1160.65 | 527.8160.87 |
How well this outlook has done here
We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.
- On average it was off by
- 0.27 ft0.08 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.42 ft0.13 m
- Actual level inside our range
- 73% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).
Connected lakes
Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.
Downstream
Nearby lakes
Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.
- Joe Pool Lake24 mi38 km away · 519.9 ft158.47 m · 91%
- Navarro Mills Lake27 mi44 km away · 422.2 ft128.68 m · 79%
- Mountain Creek Lake28 mi45 km away · 457.7 ft139.51 m · 100%
- Lake Halbert29 mi47 km away · 365.3 ft111.33 m · 75%
- Lake Arlington34 mi55 km away · 545.7 ft166.32 m · 80%
- Lake Pat Cleburne36 mi58 km away · 731.3 ft222.91 m · 87%
About Lake Waxahachie
Lake Waxahachie is a small water-supply lake south of Waxahachie, east of Interstate 35E, formed by South Prong Dam in 1956. Its outflow drains to Bardwell Lake.
- Full pool (conservation)
- 531.5 ft162.00 m
- Highest level since 1999
- 533.4 ft162.59 m, Mar 2007
- Lowest level since 1999
- 523.3 ft159.50 m, Oct 2023
- Surface area at normal pool
- 690 acres279 ha
- Conservation storage
- 11,060 acre-feet14 million m³
- Dam
- South Prong Dam, 1956
- River or creek
- South Prong Waxahachie Creek
- County
- Ellis
- Owner
- Ellis County WCID 1
Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).
Common questions
Is Lake Waxahachie full right now?
On Oct 26 it was 526.9 ft, 4.6 ft below full pool (531.5 ft), holding 75% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 160.59 m, 1.41 m below full pool (162.00 m), holding 75% of its conservation storage.
Is Lake Waxahachie going up or down?
The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 526.7 ft and 527.1 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 160.54 m and 160.66 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.
Where does this data come from?
Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.