Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2420.9 ft128.29 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 420.8128.27 to 421.0 ft128.32 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9420.9 ft128.30 m0.0 ft−0.01 m from todayLikely 420.8128.25 to 421.2 ft128.38 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25421.0 ft128.33 m+0.1 ft+0.02 m from todayLikely 420.7128.24 to 421.3 ft128.42 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.4 in9 mm normal 1.0 in25 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Lake Jacksonville with the dam, level gauge and 3 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	420.8128.27	420.9128.29	421.0128.32
Nov 9	420.8128.25	420.9128.30	421.2128.38
Nov 25	420.7128.24	421.0128.33	421.3128.42

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.11 ft0.03 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.16 ft0.05 m
Actual level inside our range: 86% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Downstream

B. A. Steinhagen Lake82.6 ft25.18 m · 95%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Lake Jacksonville

Lake Jacksonville is a city water-supply lake on Gum Creek in Cherokee County, near Jacksonville, formed by Buckner Dam in 1957. Gum Creek drains to the Neches River system, which reaches B. A. Steinhagen Lake far downstream.

More: Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 422.0 ft128.63 m
Highest level since 1999: 424.4 ft129.34 m, Jul 2007
Lowest level since 1999: 416.4 ft126.91 m, Nov 2011
Surface area at normal pool: 1,325 acres536 ha
Conservation storage: 25,670 acre-feet32 million m³
Dam: Buckner Dam, 1957
River or creek: Gum Creek
County: Cherokee
Owner: City of Jacksonville

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Lake Jacksonville full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 421.0 ft, 1.0 ft below full pool (422.0 ft), holding 95% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 128.31 m, 0.32 m below full pool (128.63 m), holding 95% of its conservation storage.

Is Lake Jacksonville going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 420.8 ft and 421.2 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 128.25 m and 128.38 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.