Outlook
Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.
Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.
- Rain, past 7 days
- 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
- Rain forecast, next 7 days
- 0.5 in12 mm normal 1.1 in28 mm
Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.
Map
Map of Lake Nacogdoches with the dam, level gauge and 3 public boat ramps.
- Dam
- Level gauge
- Public boat ramp
Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.
Level and outlook
FeetMeters above sea level
- Measured
- Middle estimate
- 8 in 10 range
- Full pool
Show outlook as a table
| Date | Low end | Middle | High end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 275.383.92 | 275.483.95 | 275.684.00 |
| Nov 9 | 275.283.88 | 275.483.94 | 275.684.01 |
| Nov 25 | 274.983.78 | 275.283.88 | 275.984.09 |
How well this outlook has done here
We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.
- On average it was off by
- 0.32 ft0.10 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.44 ft0.13 m
- Actual level inside our range
- 76% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).
Connected lakes
Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.
Nearby lakes
Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.
- Lake Striker25 mi41 km away · 290.5 ft88.54 m · 72%
- Lake Jacksonville36 mi58 km away · 421.0 ft128.31 m · 95%
- Murvaul Lake39 mi63 km away · 263.8 ft80.39 m · 87%
- Houston County Lake47 mi76 km away · 259.1 ft78.98 m · 93%
- Lake Palestine48 mi78 km away · 342.8 ft104.49 m · 87%
- Martin Lake49 mi79 km away · 301.9 ft92.02 m · 75%
About Lake Nacogdoches
Lake Nacogdoches is a city water-supply reservoir on Bayou Loco, about 10 miles west of Nacogdoches, built in 1977. Bayou Loco flows to the Angelina River, so its water eventually passes through Sam Rayburn Reservoir and B. A. Steinhagen Lake.
- Full pool (conservation)
- 279.0 ft85.04 m
- Highest level since 1996
- 286.6 ft87.37 m, Jan 1999
- Lowest level since 1996
- 266.6 ft81.27 m, Nov 2011
- Surface area at normal pool
- 2,212 acres895 ha
- Conservation storage
- 39,522 acre-feet49 million m³
- Dam
- Bayou Loco Dam, 1977
- River or creek
- Bayou Loco
- County
- Nacogdoches
- Owner
- City of Nacogdoches
Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).
Common questions
Is Lake Nacogdoches full right now?
On Oct 26 it was 275.6 ft, 3.4 ft below full pool (279.0 ft), holding 83% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 84.00 m, 1.04 m below full pool (85.04 m), holding 83% of its conservation storage.
Is Lake Nacogdoches going up or down?
The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.2 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 275.2 ft and 275.6 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.06 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 83.88 m and 84.01 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.
Where does this data come from?
Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.