Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2227.0 ft69.18 m−0.1 ft−0.04 m from todayLikely 226.969.16 to 227.1 ft69.21 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9226.9 ft69.17 m−0.2 ft−0.05 m from todayLikely 226.869.13 to 227.2 ft69.24 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25226.8 ft69.14 m−0.3 ft−0.08 m from todayLikely 226.669.06 to 227.7 ft69.40 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.6 in14 mm normal 1.0 in26 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Lake O' the Pines with the dam, level gauge and 37 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	226.969.16	227.069.18	227.169.21
Nov 9	226.869.13	226.969.17	227.269.24
Nov 25	226.669.06	226.869.14	227.769.40

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.63 ft0.19 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.84 ft0.26 m
Actual level inside our range: 76% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 31% of those 35 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Upstream

Lake Bob Sandlin334.6 ft101.99 m · 87%

Downstream

Caddo Lake167.3 ft50.98 m · 46%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Lake O' the Pines

Lake O’ the Pines is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir on Big Cypress Bayou, mostly in Marion County, with the dam about 8.5 miles west of Jefferson. Ferrells Bridge Dam was completed in the late 1950s, and the lake went into operation in 1959, for flood control and water supply. Lake Bob Sandlin is upstream, and Caddo Lake is downstream.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 228.5 ft69.65 m
Highest level since 1988: 244.7 ft74.59 m, Mar 2001
Lowest level since 1988: 223.1 ft68.01 m, Nov 2006
Surface area at normal pool: 18,700 acres7,568 ha
Conservation storage: 241,363 acre-feet298 million m³
Dam: Ferrells Bridge Dam, 1958
River or creek: Cypress Creek
County: Marion
Owner: USACE - Fort Worth District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Lake O' the Pines full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 227.1 ft, 2.9 ft below full pool (230.0 ft), holding 90% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 69.21 m, 0.89 m below full pool (70.10 m), holding 90% of its conservation storage.

Is Lake O' the Pines going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.2 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 226.8 ft and 227.2 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.05 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 69.13 m and 69.24 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.