Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2263.7 ft80.37 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 263.680.36 to 263.8 ft80.41 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9263.7 ft80.38 m0.0 ft−0.01 m from todayLikely 263.680.35 to 263.9 ft80.44 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25263.8 ft80.39 m0.0 ft0.00 m from todayLikely 263.580.32 to 264.7 ft80.68 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.4 in11 mm normal 1.1 in27 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Murvaul Lake with the dam, level gauge and 6 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	263.680.36	263.780.37	263.880.41
Nov 9	263.680.35	263.780.38	263.980.44
Nov 25	263.580.32	263.880.39	264.780.68

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.21 ft0.06 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.28 ft0.09 m
Actual level inside our range: 79% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Downstream

Toledo Bend Reservoir167.8 ft51.14 m · 85%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Murvaul Lake

Murvaul Lake is a water-supply reservoir on Murvaul Bayou in Panola County, near Gary, built in 1956 and owned by the Panola County Fresh Water Supply District. Murvaul Bayou drains to the Sabine River above Toledo Bend Reservoir.

More: Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 265.3 ft80.86 m
Highest level since 1999: 269.2 ft82.04 m, Mar 2016
Lowest level since 1999: 260.4 ft79.35 m, Nov 2011
Surface area at normal pool: 3,720 acres1,505 ha
Conservation storage: 38,285 acre-feet47 million m³
Dam: Murvaul Bayou Dam, 1956
River or creek: Murvaul Creek (Murvaul Bayou)
County: Panola
Owner: Panola County FWSD 1

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Murvaul Lake full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 263.8 ft, 1.6 ft below full pool (265.3 ft), holding 87% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 80.39 m, 0.47 m below full pool (80.86 m), holding 87% of its conservation storage.

Is Murvaul Lake going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 263.6 ft and 263.9 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 80.35 m and 80.44 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.