Outlook
Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.
Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.
- Rain, past 7 days
- 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
- Rain forecast, next 7 days
- 0.4 in10 mm normal 0.9 in24 mm
Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Map
Map of Somerville Lake with the dam, level gauge and 13 public boat ramps.
- Dam
- Level gauge
- Public boat ramp
Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.
Level and outlook
FeetMeters above sea level
- Measured
- Middle estimate
- 8 in 10 range
- Full pool
Show outlook as a table
| Date | Low end | Middle | High end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 235.871.88 | 236.071.92 | 236.171.97 |
| Nov 9 | 235.571.79 | 235.971.89 | 236.271.99 |
| Nov 25 | 235.271.69 | 235.771.85 | 237.072.23 |
How well this outlook has done here
We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.
- On average it was off by
- 0.62 ft0.19 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.87 ft0.27 m
- Actual level inside our range
- 78% of 415 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
- When we said a rise was possible (20–40%)
- 21% of those 34 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher
The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).
Nearby lakes
Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.
- Gibbons Creek Reservoir34 mi54 km away · 245.5 ft74.82 m · 86%
- Granger Lake54 mi87 km away · 503.8 ft153.55 m · 98%
- Lake Conroe58 mi93 km away · 199.4 ft60.78 m · 93%
- Barker Reservoir65 mi105 km away · 69.9 ft21.32 m
- Addicks Reservoir65 mi105 km away · 76.4 ft23.28 m
- Lake Limestone70 mi113 km away · 359.9 ft109.70 m · 82%
About Somerville Lake
Somerville Lake lies on Yegua Creek next to the town of Somerville, about 10 miles northwest of Brenham, and is run by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It was impounded in 1967 for flood control and water supply, and spans Burleson, Washington and Lee counties.
More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
- Full pool (conservation)
- 238.0 ft72.54 m
- Highest level since 1995
- 259.8 ft79.18 m, May 2016
- Lowest level since 1995
- 227.6 ft69.38 m, Dec 2011
- Surface area at normal pool
- 6,430 acres2,602 ha
- Conservation storage
- 150,293 acre-feet185 million m³
- Dam
- Somerville Dam, 1967
- River or creek
- Yegua Creek
- County
- Washington
- Owner
- USACE - Fort Worth District
Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).
Common questions
Is Somerville Lake full right now?
On Oct 26 it was 236.2 ft, 1.8 ft below full pool (238.0 ft), holding 87% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 71.98 m, 0.56 m below full pool (72.54 m), holding 87% of its conservation storage.
Is Somerville Lake going up or down?
The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.3 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 235.5 ft and 236.2 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.09 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 71.79 m and 71.99 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.
Where does this data come from?
Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.