Outlook
Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.
Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.
- Rain, past 7 days
- 0.6 in15 mm watershed average
- Rain forecast, next 7 days
- 1.1 in27 mm normal 0.5 in14 mm
Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.
Map
Map of Fort Phantom Hill Reservoir with the dam, level gauge and 6 public boat ramps.
- Dam
- Level gauge
- Public boat ramp
Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.
Level and outlook
FeetMeters above sea level
- Measured
- Middle estimate
- 8 in 10 range
- Full pool
Show outlook as a table
| Date | Low end | Middle | High end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 1628.9496.50 | 1629.1496.54 | 1629.5496.67 |
| Nov 9 | 1628.8496.47 | 1629.0496.53 | 1629.8496.75 |
| Nov 25 | 1628.5496.36 | 1629.0496.51 | 1632.0497.42 |
How well this outlook has done here
We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.
- On average it was off by
- 0.21 ft0.06 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.32 ft0.10 m
- Actual level inside our range
- 86% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).
Connected lakes
Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.
Nearby lakes
Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.
- Lake Stamford33 mi53 km away · 1414.1 ft431.01 m · 74%
- Lake Sweetwater38 mi61 km away · 2090.2 ft637.10 m · 16%
- Lake Coleman41 mi66 km away · 1712.5 ft521.97 m · 77%
- Lake Cisco42 mi68 km away · 1502.9 ft458.08 m · 42%
- Hubbard Creek Reservoir45 mi72 km away · 1166.0 ft355.38 m · 36%
- Oak Creek Reservoir51 mi83 km away · 1973.2 ft601.44 m · 13%
About Fort Phantom Hill Reservoir
Fort Phantom Hill Reservoir is a City of Abilene water-supply lake on Elm Creek in Jones County, near Nugent, built in 1938. Lake Abilene is upstream. Its outflow eventually reaches the Brazos River and Possum Kingdom Lake.
- Full pool (conservation)
- 1635.9 ft498.62 m
- Highest level since 1999
- 1638.5 ft499.43 m, Jun 2021
- Lowest level since 1999
- 1617.7 ft493.08 m, Dec 1999
- Surface area at normal pool
- 4,246 acres1,718 ha
- Conservation storage
- 70,030 acre-feet86 million m³
- Dam
- Fort Phantom Hill Dam, 1938
- River or creek
- Elm Creek
- County
- Jones
- Owner
- City of Abilene
Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).
Common questions
Is Fort Phantom Hill Reservoir full right now?
On Oct 26 it was 1629.0 ft, 6.9 ft below full pool (1635.9 ft), holding 67% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 496.53 m, 2.09 m below full pool (498.62 m), holding 67% of its conservation storage.
Is Fort Phantom Hill Reservoir going up or down?
The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 1628.8 ft and 1629.8 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 496.47 m and 496.75 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.
Where does this data come from?
Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.