Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2167.7 ft51.11 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 167.551.05 to 167.9 ft51.17 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9167.7 ft51.10 m−0.1 ft−0.03 m from todayLikely 167.551.05 to 167.9 ft51.17 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25167.6 ft51.10 m−0.1 ft−0.04 m from todayLikely 167.451.03 to 168.2 ft51.26 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.6 in14 mm normal 1.1 in27 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Toledo Bend Reservoir with the dam, level gauge and 59 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	167.551.05	167.751.11	167.951.17
Nov 9	167.551.05	167.751.10	167.951.17
Nov 25	167.451.03	167.651.10	168.251.26

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.40 ft0.12 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.52 ft0.16 m
Actual level inside our range: 80% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 21% of those 28 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Upstream

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Toledo Bend Reservoir

Toledo Bend Reservoir is a very large reservoir on the Sabine River along the Texas-Louisiana border. The dam, completed in 1966, sits in Newton County, Texas, and is run jointly by the Sabine River Authorities of Texas and Louisiana for water supply and hydropower. It collects the Sabine from Lake Tawakoni downstream, plus tributary lakes such as Lake Fork, Cherokee, Martin and Murvaul.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 172.0 ft52.43 m
Highest level since 1986: 174.2 ft53.10 m, Mar 2016
Lowest level since 1986: 159.5 ft48.62 m, Nov 2011
Surface area at normal pool: 182,490 acres73,851 ha
Conservation storage: 2,236,450 acre-feet2,759 million m³
Dam: Toledo Bend, 1966
River or creek: Sabine
County: Sabine
Owner: Sabine River Authority of Texas and Sabine River Authority, State of Louisiana (Authorities)

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Toledo Bend Reservoir full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 167.8 ft, 4.2 ft below full pool (172.0 ft), holding 85% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 51.14 m, 1.29 m below full pool (52.43 m), holding 85% of its conservation storage.

Is Toledo Bend Reservoir going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 167.5 ft and 167.9 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 51.05 m and 51.17 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.