Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2152.7 ft46.56 m−0.3 ft−0.08 m from todayLikely 152.646.52 to 152.8 ft46.59 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9152.5 ft46.47 m−0.5 ft−0.16 m from todayLikely 152.346.41 to 152.8 ft46.59 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25152.3 ft46.41 m−0.7 ft−0.23 m from todayLikely 151.946.31 to 153.2 ft46.70 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.5 in12 mm normal 1.1 in28 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Map

Map of Sam Rayburn Reservoir with the dam, level gauge and 33 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	152.646.52	152.746.56	152.846.59
Nov 9	152.346.41	152.546.47	152.846.59
Nov 25	151.946.31	152.346.41	153.246.70

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.54 ft0.16 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.87 ft0.27 m
Actual level inside our range: 80% of 428 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10
When we said a rise was possible (20–40%): 37% of those 35 times it ended 1 ft0.3 m or more higher

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Upstream

Downstream

B. A. Steinhagen Lake82.6 ft25.18 m · 95%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Sam Rayburn Reservoir

Sam Rayburn Reservoir is the largest lake entirely within Texas, on the Angelina River in Deep East Texas about 70 miles north of Beaumont. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed the dam in 1965 for flood control, water supply and hydropower. Water released from Rayburn flows into B. A. Steinhagen Lake just downstream.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board · U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Full pool (conservation): 164.4 ft50.11 m
Highest level since 1988: 175.2 ft53.41 m, Jun 2021
Lowest level since 1988: 55.3 ft16.86 m, Oct 1988
Surface area at normal pool: 114,500 acres46,337 ha
Conservation storage: 2,857,077 acre-feet3,524 million m³
Dam: Sam Rayburn Dam, 1965
River or creek: Angelina River
County: Jasper
Owner: USACE - Fort Worth District

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Sam Rayburn Reservoir full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 153.0 ft, 11.4 ft below full pool (164.4 ft), holding 61% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 46.64 m, 3.47 m below full pool (50.11 m), holding 61% of its conservation storage.

Is Sam Rayburn Reservoir going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.5 ft, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 152.3 ft and 152.8 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is down about 0.16 m, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 46.41 m and 46.59 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.