Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2822.8 ft250.80 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 822.8250.79 to 823.1 ft250.89 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9822.8 ft250.80 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 822.7250.77 to 823.3 ft250.93 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25822.8 ft250.79 m−0.1 ft−0.03 m from todayLikely 822.5250.71 to 824.7 ft251.38 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.8 in19 mm normal 0.8 in20 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Lake Nocona with the dam, level gauge and 3 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	822.8250.79	822.8250.80	823.1250.89
Nov 9	822.7250.77	822.8250.80	823.3250.93
Nov 25	822.5250.71	822.8250.79	824.7251.38

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.19 ft0.06 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.25 ft0.08 m
Actual level inside our range: 80% of 426 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Downstream

Lake Texoma616.8 ft188.01 m · 100%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Lake Nocona

Lake Nocona, also called Farmer’s Creek Reservoir, is on Farmer’s Creek about 9 miles northeast of Nocona in Montague County. It was completed in 1960 for municipal, industrial and mining water supply. The creek drains to the Red River above Lake Texoma.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 827.5 ft252.22 m
Highest level since 1999: 833.5 ft254.04 m, Jun 2015
Lowest level since 1999: 813.1 ft247.84 m, Feb 2015
Surface area at normal pool: 1,362 acres551 ha
Conservation storage: 21,444 acre-feet26 million m³
Dam: Farmer Creek Dam, 1960
River or creek: Farmers Creek
County: Montague
Owner: City of Nocona

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Lake Nocona full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 822.9 ft, 4.6 ft below full pool (827.5 ft), holding 73% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 250.82 m, 1.40 m below full pool (252.22 m), holding 73% of its conservation storage.

Is Lake Nocona going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 822.7 ft and 823.3 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 250.77 m and 250.93 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.