Outlook

Middle estimate, with the range the level has an 8 in 10 chance of landing in. The bars share one scale: change from today.

Next week · by Nov 2920.7 ft280.63 m−0.1 ft−0.02 m from todayLikely 920.6280.61 to 920.8 ft280.67 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In 2 weeks · by Nov 9920.7 ft280.62 m−0.1 ft−0.03 m from todayLikely 920.5280.58 to 921.0 ft280.72 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: under 5%

In a month · by Nov 25920.6 ft280.59 m−0.2 ft−0.06 m from todayLikely 920.4280.52 to 922.3 ft281.10 mChance of ending 1 ft0.3 m or more higher: 10%

Rises are harder to call. Heavy rain in the watershed can push the lake above these ranges within days.

Rain, past 7 days: 0.0 in0 mm watershed average
Rain forecast, next 7 days: 0.7 in18 mm normal 0.6 in15 mm

Statistical estimate, not safety, boating, or water-quality advice. For ramps, closures and advisories, check the lake operator.

Map

Map of Lake Arrowhead with the dam, level gauge and 9 public boat ramps.

Dam
Level gauge
Public boat ramp

Ramp locations from Texas Parks and Wildlife. Whether a ramp is open depends on the lake level; check the operator.

Level and outlook

FeetMeters above sea level

Measured
Middle estimate
8 in 10 range
Full pool

Show outlook as a table

Date	Low end	Middle	High end
Nov 2	920.6280.61	920.7280.63	920.8280.67
Nov 9	920.5280.58	920.7280.62	921.0280.72
Nov 25	920.4280.52	920.6280.59	922.3281.10

How well this outlook has done here

We tested the 2-week outlook on past years at this lake, as if made once a week with only what was known that day.

On average it was off by: 0.19 ft0.06 m Assuming the level stays the same was off by 0.27 ft0.08 m
Actual level inside our range: 80% of 432 tests; the range is built to catch 8 in 10

The rise chance uses the same threshold for every lake: 1 ft (0.3048 m).

Connected lakes

Water from upstream lakes flows into this one; water released here flows on downstream.

Upstream

Lake Kickapoo1041.9 ft317.57 m · 80%

Downstream

Lake Texoma616.8 ft188.01 m · 100%

Nearby lakes

Closest lakes in a straight line, with today's level.

About Lake Arrowhead

Lake Arrowhead is a reservoir on the Little Wichita River in Clay County, southeast of Wichita Falls. It was built in 1966 to supply drinking water to the City of Wichita Falls, and Lake Arrowhead State Park is on its shore. Lake Kickapoo sits upstream on the North Fork of the Little Wichita.

More: Wikipedia · Texas Water Development Board

Full pool (conservation): 926.0 ft282.24 m
Highest level since 1996: 927.6 ft282.73 m, Jun 2015
Lowest level since 1996: 906.3 ft276.23 m, Nov 2014
Surface area at normal pool: 14,500 acres5,868 ha
Conservation storage: 230,359 acre-feet284 million m³
Dam: Lake Arrowhead Dam, 1966
River or creek: Little Wichita River
County: Clay
Owner: City of Wichita Falls

Elevations are feetmeters above sea level (NGVD29).

Common questions

Is Lake Arrowhead full right now?

On Oct 26 it was 920.8 ft, 5.3 ft below full pool (926.0 ft), holding 70% of its conservation storage.On Oct 26 it was 280.64 m, 1.60 m below full pool (282.24 m), holding 70% of its conservation storage.

Is Lake Arrowhead going up or down?

The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 920.5 ft and 921.0 ft. The chance it ends 1 ft or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.The middle estimate for Nov 9 is about steady, with an 8 in 10 chance it ends between 280.58 m and 280.72 m. The chance it ends 0.3 m or more higher than today is under 5%. Heavy rain can change that quickly.

Where does this data come from?

Daily levels come from the Texas Water Development Board and lake operators. The outlook is our own statistical model, using recent levels and forecast rain over the watershed.